Influence of innovative risk to the national security of the country
INFLUENCE OF INNOVATIVE RISK TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY OF THE COUNTRY
The purpose of the article is the development of a conceptual model of the possible risks influence on the national security of the country in the innovation sector of the economy. The study was used synthesis methods and analysis.
The article describes the worldwide trend of departure from raw-material orientation and transition to innovative development of national economy, main problems and innovative development constraining factors. Have identified main threat having a negative influence on the development of innovative sphere and the national security status. On the basis of which, the conceptual model of the interaction between innovative risks and national security have been proposed.
Key words national economy, innovative development, national security, innovation risks, threats
Human civilization is surrounded by constant threats and dangers. In addition, the current qualitative changes are led to appearance of new global problems and various risks. The most important task for states is to ensure national security, the implementation of strategic interests, reducing risks and threats. As under the current economic conditions, one of the key factors of economic growth and competitiveness are the innovations used to provide an industrial breakthrough.
In connection with the global trend of transition of economies of developed and developing countries to innovative development, a very actual problem is study of risks passing into threats and having a negative effect on the status of national security.
2. STRENGTHENING OF INNOVATIVE ORIENTATION OF ECONOMIC SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT
Analysis of foreign experience and best practice shows that modern strategy and tactics of the most stable economical system depends on a desire to move into an innovative development (Kolodko, 2005, pages 32-38). First of all, this is shown in continuous complex prior use of technological innovations by them as a factor of the most effective achievement of all the current and future objectives. Actively pursued policy oriented to stimulation of innovative activity, high technology and science absorbing industry has allowed to the developed countries to provide conditions for creation of innovative economy or “knowledge economy”. The innovative economy is characteristic for post-industrial society, whereas agricultural type of production for characteristic of pre-industrial society, the industrial one is for industrial society, then knowledge economy becomes dominant in post-industrial society. The main production factors in the pre-industrial production are land and labor, in the industrial one – labor and capital, in the post-industrial production - information resources and scientific knowledge embodied in innovations. The main factor of national economy growth is still increase of natural recourses production and export, first of all is oil and gas. In addition, the following problems is setting: diversification of economy, appearance of new industries, implementation of projects in the non-resource industry. Activity of Institutions of development, formation of innovative infrastructure and science reforming are directed for this. All of this allows to provide preconditions for transition to service and technologic economy.
Thus, model of "recourses" development will be at the level of the national economy, and innovative development will be fit to the level of individual economic system (sectors, enterprises).
Innovative development of economic systems is characterized by the following:
a) innovative objections;
b) innovative means for achievement of these objections;
c) active use of business resources;
d) possession of own market;
e) presence of stable direct relationships with main consumers, i.e. formation of own market of non-traditional innovative goods and services.
Change of state priority in the field of industrial and innovative development have occurred in USA and a row of the European countries. The main characters of new innovative policy is reduction of military research quantity in the total volume of state investments, growth of investments for fundamental sciences and researches connected with health system, as well as fall of the interest to researches and development in the field of traditional energetics. Key position in the innovative technological field of new administration of USA belongs to stimulation of the innovative energy technologies of “Green energetics” if we say more exactly, then base components of new policy are development of alternative energy sources (sun, wind, etc.). In European countries, those fields of knowledge and technologies, which were key and high-priority ones (aviation, energetic, military technologies) in 80th years, have given their places to informatics, medicine, bio technologies and some new directions at the junction of traditional fields. The newest priority in all countries became programs in the field of nanotechnologies.
Today, innovative development is a necessary condition of Kazakhstan's participation in the creation of a new quality of the global economy. In the Letter of the President of Kazakhstan for 2010 year named as "New Decade - New Economic Growth - New opportunities for Kazakhstan", the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan have accepted the strategic task of creating "a fully functioning National Innovation System" by 2015, which "should already give results in the form developments, patents, and existing technologies, implemented in the country by 2020" (President of Republic Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, 2010). The economic priorities of the new model of economic development of Kazakhstan are determined by the state program of accelerated industrial-innovative development of the country. In the structure of the economy, the share of manufacturing in GDP should increase and should be no less than 13% in 2020, while the share of non-resource export total volume will be increased to 45%. Support non-resource exporters is considered in the Letter-2010 as "a key direction of industrialization", used to expand export opportunities for Kazakhstan's industry in the international markets. It is assumed that increase of innovative companies for ten years from 4 to 20% and decrease of GDP energy intensity by at least 25%. Undoubtedly, in recent years, Kazakhstan has made significant progress in the economic reforms. Only in 2011, 288 projects, amounted more than 970 billion KZT, were put into operation (President of Republic Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, 2012). However, the rapid development is still provided without the support of the innovative factor. The national economy is still far from the characters of an innovative economic growth. Innovative activity of industrial enterprises is at low level.
The market economy is highly susceptible to innovations. However, this does not automatically solve all the problems in the area of innovation. In order that market mechanisms will play their stimulating role in the creation and development of innovations, they must be complemented by an active government policy. A strong policy in the field of science, technology and innovation does not only contradict with the calculation of the increasing role of market innovation initiatives from below, from entrepreneurs, small business, private capital, but also provides the basis for all this. The active innovation policy factor is even more important for the period formation of market institutions and infrastructure formation.
Business innovativeness, as evidenced by the practice, becomes stable by introducing special laws and governmental regulations. Great influence in the U.S., for example, a law of the development of small innovative firms have been adopted in 1982. It opened the door to small entrepreneurs for participation in the struggle for non-repayabletargeted subsidies (grants).
At the same time, just economic systems of primary links - enterprises, firms, corporations should be in the focus of the changes associated with expression of State's stable interest in thehigh-efficient innovations. In a word, innovation orientation strengthening is undoubtedly imperative for all levels of economic systems.
Activation of innovative activities directly is related to the formation of an expanded motivations systems, with the creation of the modern economic mechanism of this activity. Just this aspect of the innovation process largely determines technological innovation pace in the enterprises and in the economy in general, and ultimately the competitiveness of each firms and all country. The problem of economic mechanism creation, allowing generate, reproduce and use technological innovations to modernize the economy, improve the quality of life in our country, becomes very important and requires the formation of an adequate view of the main characteristics of innovation processes and their driving forces and regularities.
Production and sales in the market of innovations and consumer goods, the creation for this of adequate technical and technological basis arecarried out bycyclic reproduction mode. For this purpose, an interacting integrated set of reproduction processes areorganized and always supported. It consists of reproductive processes of creating new products and services, as well as the reproduction processes of innovations - factors allowing to maintain production facilities at the existing capacity levels of scientific and technological progress.
The reproduction processes are not a chain of 5 consecutive stages (science - production - distribution - exchange - consumption), and they are more complex, are cyclically repeating formation, constantly absorbing various resources and ending with not only consumption, but also the resumption of a number of presuppositions, including investment, training, innovation, continuing own and many other reproduction cycles (Kotilko, 2003, pp. 95-101).
However, the experience of world economic development shows that there is no single universal innovation model, capable of providing high-quality economic breakthrough without considering the peculiarities of national development.
There are six most clearly identified technological development models, created a basis for the transition to an innovation economy, which are realized in the different countries.
The first model can be defined as "innovative environment", which can form in the future and serve as a source of innovation and technological development only in the presence of the four required elements: science represented by major research and experimental centers, big private capital, modern-equipped multi-enterprises, large number of highly skilled engineers and workers. An example of such a model can be a Silicon Valley in California (USA).
The second model of technological development based on the fact that the initiation of innovations, bringing them to the technological and production implemented by any large transnational company has the necessary capital, having a complex of enterprises with modern manufacturing processes, as well as its own research centers.
The third model is a model of "state protectionism", which is characterized by the fact that a government is supporting technological innovation through national private firms under the conditions of closed domestic market for foreign companies.
The fourth model differs from the "state protectionism" by the fact that technological progress is in constant and direct interaction with the world market, when the national economic borders remain open.
The fifth model is based as a basic objective of technological development in the achievement of military superiority.
Finally, the sixth model is a model of the European Community. It is based on cooperation between governments and private companies in the different countries. Itislike"innovativeenvironment" outofnationalframework.
In Kazakhstan, as a model of innovative development within the united economic space for Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus, it is assumed formation and development of new industries based on nano-, bio-, information technologies and the transformation of traditional industries in the innovative ones. Thus, in the overall innovation policy of the CIS countries, Kazakhstan will have to overcome several challenges due to a number of negative factors including inefficient economic structure, dominance of low technology industry sector, disinterest business in the research sector, reduction of expenditures for science researches, a small volume of domestic high-tech products in the world markets.
The formation of a new innovation system in Kazakhstan is just beginning. Nevertheless, despite the difficulty of quickly creating an effective national innovation and economic model, as well as the difficulties in integration of science, business and education in the country, at the moment, there are new innovative structure and the preconditions formed for balanced development of all elements of the innovation system as part of strategic plans of economic development in the country the next decade till 2030.
3. THE MODEL OF INFLUENCE OF INNOVATIVE RISK TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY OF THE COUNTRY
Resistance to the system innovation process is an objective reality for almost all world countries. The objective nature of this resistance goes from the natural laws of motion, which features require an adequate response. In the Kazakhstan economy, resistance to innovation is particularly strong due to underdevelopment of the market institutionalism.
Thus, we can mark the following factors preventing innovative development of Kazakhstan (Makarenko, Kopka, Rogozhin & Egorov; Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2010):
1) traditional non-market institutionalism (and professionalism corresponding to it), which tends to reproduce the power verticals, which are replacing freedom of market entrepreneurship, and also makes it inefficient substitutes in the form of technocratic schemes: the management of scientific and technical progress, project management (innovative ones in name only) , and so on;
2) traditional capital - complex of social relations caused by the very high percentage of agricultural population (about 30%);
3) low level of liberalization (and humanization) of economic relations: a high degree of problematic equivalent exchange of goods without the intervention of an of different levels of public administration institutions (the ratio of "liberalization and administration"), on this basis, a high degree of "untouchability" of entrepreneurial activity, depending on proximity to power verticals and the tops of power pyramids, low degree of development of interindustry capital flow institutions: capital markets, the institution of bankruptcy, money markets, in particular, their venture types, low degree of development of tools of the civil society institutions influence on economic, social and political processes, the low degree of their participation in the creation of self-regulation structures of economic relationship (economic democracy and civilized forms of market relations, civilized liberalism) that complicates the transition of the economy from the traditional to innovative condition.
4) incomplete formation of the main components of the lower technological structures, which distracts them for completion of critical and scarce resources (financial, labor, energy, etc.) necessary to build a higher technological structure;
5) stable disturbances of monetary proportions - low level of monetization rate, 38.7% according to the results of III quarter of 2011, causing an imbalance in all other markets, distorting the information function of market prices, which important for the formation of innovative priorities. Inaddition, highmarketinterestratesconstraininvestmentactivities;
6) the suppression of the institutional foundations of the social orientation for market economy: the global experience shows that social problems are most effectively overcame through the development of innovative economy sector, and according to this, entry into the higher level living standards, as well as by innovative support of traditional industries ("Economy Pensioners");
7) traditional science and education in Kazakhstan: the lack of a common scientific space, in which under the same conditions both traditional and newly-formed research and analytical structures would be functioned (namely the newly formed ones open up new directions of researches), the lack of a developed market of scientific and analytical products in Kazakhstan, forecasts; excessive "schematization" of ideas about innovation processes, a lack of understanding of market mechanisms of Innovation and exaggeration of the role played by administrative structures, insufficient accounting of geo-economic, ethno-geographical and demoeconomy features of Kazakhstan, lack of funding for science development in Kazakhstan;
8) excessive fragmentarity of almost all control mechanism components of systematic innovation process in Kazakhstan, it is the obvious fact that dissociation of the basic elements of management of innovation processes: the lack of forecasts and venture capital market (not by name, and by fact);
9) the weakness of information institutionalism that does not allow timely to receive truthful information about the positive experiences, but more importantly, negative experiences of economic activities and transactions, because such information is critical for the development of culture, which rationalizes the use of available resources and potentials;
10) barriers in the development of "knowledge economy": administrative barriers for companies working in the field of information technology (imperfect procedures of customs clearance and information products registration), low percentage of "local content" in the purchase performed by government agencies and companies with the state services related to information technologies, problem of staffing faced by companies operating in the Information and Communication Technologies sector, low investment activity in attracting venture capital for financing innovation developments;
11) problems preventing the training needs of professionals for the industrial-innovative development of the country: no forecasting of staffing requirements for the long term, lack of legal framework to attract employers to the training, outdated material-technical base of educational institutions; unresolved question of manufacturing practices organization and training of educational institutions students in the enterprises, the content of educational programs of higher and postgraduate education does not fully meet the requirements of employers, expressing changes in the labor market, lack of development of social partnership, i.e. the lack ofmanufacturing practice providing mechanisms, employment of graduates, attraction to the professional standards creating process by employers.
12) weakness of competition: insufficient development of competition in the food market, a high percentage of the state's participation in the economy, including increasing the number of enterprises with state participation, which negatively affects the competitive environment, and quality of basic services provided by state-owned enterprises still remains very low.
13) lack of Exchange trade, modern trade formats: on the trade market concentrated a significant amount of shadow economy, a high level of implementation of contraband and counterfeit products, the widespread use of false quality certificates for traded goods.
You can certainly say that innovations development at the present stage is a fundamental factor for economic growth. At the same time, innovative activity is associated with varied risks at different levels (mega-, macro-, meso-, micro-level). The issue of innovation risk is very important in national economy. Since, economy transition to an innovative way of development is impossible without the formation of globally competitive national innovation system. However, in the absence of proper attention to the risks, they in turn can develop into a global threat to national security. Therefore, one of the priorities in the state's policy is to form a model of national security, taking into account the influence of state’s innovative risks (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: National security conceptual model
Real demonstration of the national security system of any country are the national values, interests and objectives, threats and dangers, national security policies, principles, ways and means of its implementation. Dialectical alloy of structural components in this system represents the interaction relationship between the individual and the society in their efforts to create conditions for the existence and steady development of the individual, society and the state in general, which is impossible without the innovation component.
In order to understand and assess the impact of innovation risks in the current national security of the state, it is necessary to know the factors that determine the level of Kazakhstan’s economic security. Among these factors, most researchers include the following:
1. Geopolitical, economic and geographical position of Kazakhstan and the resulting distribution of productive forces in the country, access to domestic and foreign resources;
2. Economic, military and political power of Kazakhstan and its competitive position in the global economic system on the strategically important economic activity;
3. The orientation of the institutional system of the country to support the sectors of national economy, which depends on the level of economic security;
4. Economic policy priorities of Kazakhstan with regard to socio-economic and environmental fields, providing the achievement of international (European) standards for life quality of the country (including the level of health, education, social infrastructure, culture, art);
5. Parameters of sectoral and regional structure of GDP, taking into account the strategic importance of the national economy sectors and regions of the country for providing steady innovation growth and economic security;
6. The conditions determined the principles of national economy in the WTO, and the structure of import / export of material goods of the first and higher orders depending on these conditions, as well as intangible assets classified as strategic significant.
These factors, in fact, reflect a range of external (exogenous) and internal (endogenous) threats to the economic security of Kazakhstan. Each of these threats is a certain degree of danger for the country, which in turn determines the priorities of these threats (Be, know, do: Economic security of Russia, 2009).
Under the threats in the economic field, we understand dangerous phenomena and destructive factors destabilizing economy stability, and which constitute a danger to the interests of market participants, the normal functioning of industries, companies, firms and other economic units of the market. It is necessary to show threats to economic security due to innovation risks, since, if implemented, they led to a material and financial damage.
The most serious internal threats under the present conditions are caused by innovative risk management are as follows (Akanova, 2010):
1. structural deformation of national economy dominated by fuel and raw material orientation;
2. decline in industrial production;
3. low competitiveness of domestic products and the high percentage of import in the total volume of the goods;
4. reduction of investment and innovation activity;
5. destruction of the scientific and technical potential, the degradation of science and education;
The most significant external threats:
1. large external debt;
2. expansion of foreign capital;
3. business out of the country;
4. fall in prices of natural resources;
5. global financial crisis;
6. emigration and "brain drain".
Total synthesis of threats to economic security of innovation origin shows that they have covered the most important sectors of the economy, have affected the fundamentals of human life.
In the system of national security, a key role played by national economic interests, their priorities. To determine the national economic interest is required: an analysis of the current state of the economy and identify trends in innovation development, the adjustment of state regulation in order to achieve the desired objectives (Be, know, do: economic security: the essence of the factors, criteria).
The subjects of national security in terms of impact innovation risks are represented by the state legislature, executive and judicial power; objects - individual, economic and innovative potential of state control system.
Innovation risks prevention mechanisms are directly related to the following main tasks of economic security (Spanov, 1999, pp. 174-176):
- ensuring the economic independence of the country;
- non-admission of the country's economic isolation from the world economic system;
- preservation and enhancement of the resource and energy fundamentals of the economy;
- ensuring proportional and continuous economic growth;
- the formation of an efficient economic structure and developed securities market;
- non-exceedance of maximum permissible level of budget deficit and the strengthening of its revenues;
- the maintenance of national currency stability, etc.
These tasks define the strategy of economic security, taking into account the impact on it by innovation risk, as the formation and justification of the strategic priorities of national interests, resources and problem solving mechanisms.
In order to effectively ensure the safety of individuals, society and the state from external and internal threats, it is necessary to develop the national strategy adopted in the form of concepts, i.e. the official views of the system, determining the priorities and directions in this area, as well as science based on set of measures to achieve them.
National Economic Security Strategy is divided into four main areas:
Defining the goals and objects of the strategy.
Identify real and potential threats.
Development of quantitative and qualitative criteria and parameters for assessing the state of the economy.
The formation mechanism for the implementation of economic policies aimed at ensuring economic security.
The choice of strategy of economic security must come from the goals and objectives. The purpose of the strategy is to ensure high economic growth leading to stable development, which creates favorable conditions for living and personal development, social, economic and military-political stability of society, preserving the integrity of the state, equal status in the global economy, successful opposition to the influence of external and internal threats. In order to ensure the economic security of the country's strategic course taken by Kazakhstan to build a competitive innovative market economy and integration into the global economy (Akanova, 2010).
Many years of international experience shows that the power and the national security of the state are characterized, firs of all, by innovative development of the country's economy, by its financial system, which has demonstrated by the global crisis. The more stable, competitive economy, the stronger the state, so the issues of economic security, taking into account the impact of innovation risks are becoming increasingly important.
The study can be concluded that the state policy of developing countries, especially Kazakhstan, during the transition to an innovative type of development should be aimed at neutralizing the possible risks and threats, which in turn will undoubtedly help to strengthen national security.
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